Author: Stacking Trades

The number that stopped investors cold was not a loss or a miss. It was a capex forecast. When Amazon reported fourth-quarter earnings on February 6, CEO Andy Jassy committed to spending $200 billion in capital expenditures across Amazon in 2026 — more than the company generated in operating cash flow in 2025. Within days, Alphabet had disclosed plans for $175 billion to $185 billion in its own 2026 capex spend. Meta had already told investors it would invest between $115 billion and $135 billion. Microsoft is tracking toward $120 billion or more. Oracle has guided to $50 billion, a…

On April 27, a federal jury in Oakland, California, will begin hearing the most consequential corporate governance lawsuit in the history of artificial intelligence. The plaintiff is Elon Musk. The defendants are OpenAI, Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, and Microsoft. The stakes, as framed by Musk’s own attorneys in a court filing dated April 7, 2026, are the unwinding of OpenAI’s for-profit conversion, the removal of its chief executive, and the disgorgement of what Musk’s legal team has described as more than $134 billion in ill-gotten gains — to be returned, in a notable pivot, not to Musk personally, but to…

The headline numbers from investment crowdfunding’s best year in half a decade tell one story. The platform-level data underneath them tells a different one. Regulation Crowdfunding raised $378 million in 2025 and Regulation A+ surged 124% to $546 million, bringing the combined market to just under $925 million — the strongest annual performance since the 2021 peak. But the top-line growth obscures a structural shift that sophisticated investors evaluating crowdfunding as a deal source need to understand: the platforms hosting these offerings have spent the past two years diverging sharply in strategy, revenue model, and the type of investor they…

The target date has been on the calendar since early March. When U.S. Customs and Border Protection told the Court of International Trade it needed roughly 45 days from March 6 to build a functional refund system, the math put a go-live window around mid-to-late April. CBP’s most recent court filings have confirmed late April 2026 as the target for Phase 1 of the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries system, known as CAPE. For the roughly 330,000 importers that paid duties under the now-invalidated International Emergency Economic Powers Act regime, that launch date is not an administrative milestone. It…

For weeks, Terafab read like a Musk announcement in search of an execution plan. The March 21 unveiling was characteristically ambitious: Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI would construct the largest semiconductor facility ever built in Austin, Texas, targeting one terawatt of annual compute output, combining logic, memory, and packaging under one roof, and breaking from the global foundry supply chain that every other AI hardware company still depends on. It was a compelling vision with one conspicuous gap. None of the three companies announcing it had ever built a chip fab. That gap closed on April 7, when Intel announced it…

Venture capital firm Eclipse disclosed a $1.3 billion fundraise this week in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, making it the firm’s largest fund to date. The capital is split across two vehicles: $720 million for early-stage startups and $591 million for later-stage deals. The target sectors are AI infrastructure, manufacturing, and defense — not another frontier language model.The timing matters. Eclipse is closing its fund in the immediate wake of a quarter in which $300 billion flowed into global startups, with 65 cents of every venture dollar going to four companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and Waymo. That concentration is historically extreme. And…

Most earnings calls handle tariffs the same way: acknowledge the headwind, cite mitigation, decline to put a firm number on it. That language has been useful for investor relations departments navigating genuine uncertainty, but it has also obscured something that sophisticated investors can now actually measure. A handful of companies have been unusually specific — and the differences between how they are accounting for tariff exposure are not just interesting as disclosure strategy. They are a window into margin trajectories, pricing power, and supply chain positioning that will separate winners from laggards in the back half of 2026. The legal…

For roughly two years, the central question in enterprise technology investing was whether AI would actually generate revenue, or whether it would remain a perpetual R&D story — impressive in demos, invisible in earnings. That question now has a clear answer. The harder question, the one that explains a $285 billion software sector selloff in early February and a Salesforce stock that fell 5% after the company reported the fastest quarterly revenue growth in two years, is what that revenue is actually worth.The revenue is not speculative. Salesforce reported that its Agentforce platform had reached $800 million in annual recurring…

Bank earnings season opens in six days. Goldman Sachs reports before the bell on April 13. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo follow the morning after. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America arrive in the days after that. For most of the market, these releases will be read as a quarterly economic checkup. For investors tracking the capital markets cycle — particularly anyone with exposure to private equity, deal-dependent sectors, or the IPO pipeline — they carry a more specific signal: whether the M&A fee recovery that Wall Street has been predicting since late 2024 has actually arrived in the…

The last time Cerebras Systems tried to go public, it withdrew its registration statement in October 2025 — days after closing a funding round — citing an unresolved national security review of a minority investment from Abu Dhabi-based technology firm G42. The optics were not ideal. The company’s first prospectus had revealed that a single foreign customer represented roughly 87% of its revenue through the first half of 2024, and federal regulators wanted to understand what that relationship meant for sensitive American compute infrastructure.That chapter is closed. G42 has since been removed from Cerebras’s primary shareholder structure to satisfy U.S. regulators, and…

On April 1, 2026, SpaceX submitted its confidential draft registration to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, setting in motion what could be the largest initial public offering in stock market history. Bloomberg reported the filing first. CNBC, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal confirmed it within hours. The company is targeting a June listing. The valuation cited by multiple outlets is $1.75 trillion, with a capital raise that could reach $75 billion — more than double the $29 billion Saudi Aramco raised in 2019, which currently holds the record.None of that is the story. The story is what investors don’t have…

On January 28, Microsoft reported a quarter that most companies would celebrate. Revenue of $81.3 billion, up 17% year-over-year. Non-GAAP earnings per share of $4.14 against a consensus of $3.97. Microsoft Cloud crossing $50 billion in a single quarter for the first time. Commercial remaining performance obligations — essentially contracted future revenue — more than doubled year-over-year to $625 billion, buoyed in part by large Azure and OpenAI commitments.The stock fell nearly 10% the next day, erasing roughly $350 billion in market capitalization in what became Microsoft’s worst single-session drop since the early pandemic months of 2020. The contradiction tells you everything…